Pobody's nerfect. Certain nuances of this wondrous fantasy football game trip us up, year after year.
And it's not simple things, like "know your league's scoring settings," which is valid advice but directed more toward newcomers. Even veteran fantasy footballers can fall prey to the game's pitfalls.
Whether it's flawed logic, bad habits or simply following a herd mentality, the following missteps can tank your season. Let's dive deeper and prepare for the situations that can surface as early as draft day or as late as your championship matchup.
The advice here is simple: Don't. Do.
These. Things.
1. Don't succumb to recency bias "Yesterday" carries tremendous weight in fantasy decision-making.
When Emeka Egbuka begins on a historic hot streak -- his 102.4 fantasy points over his first five games were third most by any rookie wide receiver in history -- we giddily trade the farm to acquire him, only to see 42 other wide receivers outscore him from that point forward. Or, when Travis Etienne Jr ., a top-10 scoring running back across his first two NFL seasons, struggles through a lost year -- he totaled just 812 yards and two touchdowns over 15 games in 2024 -- we avoid him at all costs the following season, only to watch him rebound to a top-10 running back finish in a rejuvenated Jacksonville Jaguars offense.
Today is what matters in fantasy football and, while past results can guide our forecasting, small, relatively recent samples don't provide the full picture. They ignore factors like regression, progression, the schedule and circumstantial opportunity (such as a player thriving as an injury fill-in).
Using three-year averages to gauge a player's true skill set, while considering his immediate opportunity and upcoming matchups, is a more reasonable way to approach the decision-making process. Do not react solely off last year's stats nor last week's results.
Those numbers are gone, done, finito already. 2.
Don't fall for position runs in the draft Ever see this pattern? Josh Allen gets drafted at the end of Round 3, then Jayden Daniels goes two picks later, Lamar Jackson one pick after that, and Drake Maye two after that.
When five players at a single position fly off the board in a seven-pick span, all within the first 35 selections, managers can get antsy about the talent pool at that spot. Thus breeds the position run.
Following the crowd and selecting Joe Burrow 36th might land you a great NFL quarterback, but it will probably cost you a critical piece at another position. It might also mean you get only the fifth-best fantasy quarterback, which isn't nearly as important as drafting a weekly bona fide WR2 like Tetairoa McMillan .
If you're tempted to dive into a position run, it signals one of two things: You unwisely waited too long to address that position, or you failed to properly identify fallback candidates during your draft preparations. Do not let either happen.
3. Don't take out too much running back insurance.
Injuries are a huge factor in fantasy football, but there's no reason to waste draft resources over-insuring your team against disaster. Many managers go out of their way to draft backups to their starting running backs, often doing so at the expense of critical late-round sleepers.
Consider: Among 34 "insurance policy" running backs from the past five seasons -- clear backups to starters selected in the first five rounds -- only 10 scored more fantasy points than the starter selected ahead of them. The backups averaged 3.2 starts, while the starters averaged 12.9.
The other 46 running backs selected after the fifth round, meanwhile, averaged only 0.19 fewer fantasy points per game and put up 0.7% fewer 15-point fantasy performances than did the insurance policies, negligible margins that demonstrate that you'd do just as well selecting any late-round running back than pairing one with your starter. You will need a deep bench of running backs to successfully navigate the season, but draft, pick up and trade for those with the greatest odds of blossoming, independent of their ties to your current roster.
Do not force a Isiah Pacheco pick to insure your Jahmyr Gibbs . Instead pick somebody like Jonathon Brooks , who has hopes of emerging as the Carolina Panthers ' starter (health-willing).
An exception: Once you successfully steer your team deep into (and preferably beyond) the bye weeks, then use bench spots on insurance policies. Week 11 -- immediately following the Atlanta Falcons ' bye --